Today, we examine one of the most consequential issues facing Ethiopia today—the proposed 2026/27 federal budget. At approximately 2.34 trillion birr, it is the largest federal budget in Ethiopia’s history. The government argues that this budget is necessary to sustain economic reforms, support development projects, maintain social services, and preserve macroeconomic stability. Officials also point to external pressures, including higher fuel subsidy costs linked to the Middle East crisis, as a factor behind increased expenditure.

Yet beyond the numbers lies a much deeper political question.

Why do many Ethiopians continue to express doubts about the government’s direction despite ambitious economic plans?

Why do some citizens say they feel increasingly disconnected from the country’s leadership?

And what must the government do before asking ordinary Ethiopians to shoulder additional economic burdens?

These are questions worth examining carefully—not through political slogans, but through facts, constitutional principles, and critical analysis.

A Record Budget in Difficult Times

The proposed budget represents a significant increase from the previous fiscal year. According to Finance Minister Ahmed Shide, the government expects the economy to continue growing while keeping the budget deficit relatively contained. The administration says the budget prioritizes social protection, education, health, infrastructure, and continued implementation of its Homegrown Economic Reform Program.

Government officials argue that Ethiopia cannot stop investing simply because it faces economic difficulties. Roads must still be built. Schools must still operate. Security forces must still function. Public servants must still be paid.

From the government’s perspective, expanding public expenditure is part of maintaining national development.

But citizens often evaluate budgets differently.

Most households judge the economy not by GDP growth or macroeconomic indicators but by everyday realities.

Can they afford food?

Can they afford rent?

Can they find employment?

Can businesses access foreign currency?

Has inflation eased?

These questions often matter more than budget speeches.

Why Some Citizens Feel Disconnected

Political trust depends on more than economic statistics.

Many Ethiopians have experienced years marked by conflict, displacement, inflation, and economic uncertainty. Families across different regions have been affected in different ways.

Some citizens say they feel government communication has not always addressed their day-to-day concerns with sufficient clarity or empathy.

Others question whether economic reforms are producing benefits quickly enough for ordinary households.

This perception gap does not necessarily mean government policies have failed.

It does suggest that public confidence depends not only on policy outcomes but also on transparency, accountability, and consistent engagement with citizens.

Governments earn trust when citizens believe their concerns are acknowledged and addressed.

Economic Pressure on Households

Inflation has remained one of the greatest challenges facing Ethiopian families.

The prices of food, transportation, housing, and other essential goods have increased significantly over recent years.

Businesses continue to report challenges accessing foreign exchange.

Young graduates often struggle to secure employment.

Small and medium-sized enterprises face higher operating costs.

For many households, economic reforms are judged by whether living standards improve.

When incomes fail to keep pace with rising prices, public frustration naturally increases.

The Burden of Public Debt

Ethiopia also continues to navigate debt restructuring negotiations with international creditors following its sovereign default in 2023. Recent negotiations with bondholders have made progress, but the process illustrates the broader fiscal pressures facing the country.

Debt itself is not unusual.

Many countries borrow.

The challenge is ensuring that borrowed resources generate enough economic growth to repay those obligations while maintaining essential public services.

Citizens often ask whether every public investment delivers sufficient value.

Those are legitimate questions in any democracy.

Governance and Accountability

Economic policy cannot be separated from governance.

Article 12 of Ethiopia’s Constitution provides that government activities shall be conducted transparently and that public officials are accountable for the performance of their duties.

Article 25 guarantees equality before the law.

Article 37 guarantees access to justice through competent courts.

These constitutional principles are essential because public confidence depends on citizens believing institutions operate fairly, transparently, and consistently.

Accountability strengthens governments.

It does not weaken them.

Justice and Human Rights Concerns

Another issue influencing public confidence is the persistence of conflict and allegations of human rights abuses in different parts of the country.

International organizations—including the United Nations, the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, and reputable human rights organizations—have documented allegations by multiple parties to conflicts in Ethiopia involving unlawful killings, arbitrary detention, and restrictions on humanitarian access. These allegations concern various actors and underscore the importance of independent investigations and due process. Government authorities have, in some instances, disputed aspects of these reports or stated that investigations and accountability mechanisms are underway. Publicly reported concerns have also included restrictions on journalists and civic space during periods of heightened insecurity. These issues continue to attract international attention and domestic debate.

Regardless of differing perspectives, one principle remains widely accepted:

Lasting stability depends upon public confidence that justice is impartial.

Why Public Confidence Matters

Political legitimacy is built gradually.

Citizens are more willing to support difficult economic reforms when they believe sacrifices are shared fairly.

Trust grows when governments explain decisions openly.

Trust grows when institutions investigate allegations without fear or favour.

Trust grows when courts are perceived as independent.

Trust grows when public resources are managed transparently.

Economic reforms require political legitimacy.

Without trust, even technically sound policies become politically difficult to sustain.

Areas Where Government Could Strengthen Public Confidence

Looking ahead, several areas deserve continued attention.

First, strengthening transparency around public expenditure can help citizens understand how their tax contributions are used.

Second, continuing efforts to reduce inflation and protect purchasing power remains essential, particularly for low-income households.

Third, expanding employment opportunities for young Ethiopians should remain a national priority.

Fourth, ensuring equal application of the law regardless of political affiliation can strengthen confidence in state institutions.

Fifth, supporting an independent judiciary and allowing constructive civic dialogue can help address grievances before they become deeper political divisions.

Finally, sustained efforts toward peaceful conflict resolution and national reconciliation remain fundamental for long-term stability and economic recovery.

Conclusion

A national budget is more than a financial document.

It reflects a government’s priorities, values, and vision for the future.

The proposed 2026/27 budget demonstrates the administration’s intention to continue investing in economic reform and public services despite significant fiscal challenges.

Whether it succeeds will depend not only on the size of public expenditure but on implementation, accountability, transparency, and the extent to which citizens experience meaningful improvements in their daily lives.

History shows that governments gain lasting legitimacy not simply by spending more, but by governing effectively, listening carefully, respecting constitutional principles, and ensuring that development reaches ordinary people.

Ultimately, Ethiopia’s greatest national asset is neither its budget nor its infrastructure.

It is the trust between the state and its citizens.

Protecting that trust may prove to be the most important investment of all.