The Tsimdo Union (Eritrea & Tigray) and the alliance of forces that include TPLF, FANO, OLA, ONLF, and Benishangul.

It is expected that a war will occur, and that it will be impossible to avoid peacefully, a development that could make it possible for Dr. Abiy Ahmed to leave the country. Looking at the current alignments, the new alliance consists of TDF, FANO, OLA, ONLF, Agow fighters, Benishangul, Gumuz, and Afar forces, whom the author considers far stronger than the government of Dr. Abiy Ahmed.
Abiy Ahmed’s army was previously humiliated by the TDF, which captured hundreds of thousands of soldiers and later handed them over to the Red Cross after being unable to feed them in detention facilities. Likewise, the heroes of FANO, OLA, Agow, and Benishangul also humiliated his forces by displaying the many thousands of soldiers they had captured. FANO and OLA prevented him from holding elections in their areas, forcing him to fill ballot boxes in candidates’ homes one day before election day.
If the war begins in its final form, it is certain, according to this argument, that Dr. Abiy Ahmed will flee the country by the end of the third week of the conflict, a conclusion presented as beyond doubt or dispute.
If I summarize the reasons supporting this argument:

• The lesson of courage that TPLF previously demonstrated to the world and the reality that exists today.
• The losses and destruction suffered by Abiy Ahmed’s military at the hands of FANO, OLA, Agow, and Benishangul fighters.
• Eritrea and the Tigrayan people uniting under the Tsimdo alliance.
• The government of Dr. Abiy Ahmed losing the ability to administer Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Benishangul.

• It is worth noting how TPLF humiliated the administrations established by Dr. Abiy Ahmed to govern Tigray, beginning with the administration headed by Dr. Abraham, then that of Getachew Reda, and finally that of Tadesse Werede.
• The strength, courage, and power of the new alliance, contrasted with what is described as the cowardice, despair, and low morale of Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s forces.
• The people of Ethiopia in general, and particularly the Amhara, Oromo, Afar, Somali, Benishangul, and Gumuz communities, who, according to this argument, experienced atrocities under Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s government unlike anything they had previously experienced or heard of in history.

Dr. Abiy Ahmed having brought the Ethiopian people to the lowest level of poverty, resulting in insecurity, economic collapse, displacement, refugee flows, migration, and people dying from hunger and need.

• The alliance and political cooperation among TPLF, FANO, OLA, ONLF, Agow, Benishangul, Gumuz, and Afar becoming a united front that, according to this argument, weakened Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s government without a direct war.

• Abiy Ahmed’s army being led by former prisoners from the era when TPLF fought against the Derg government.
• The lessons and experience learned from the previous war between the TDF and the Ethiopian army, which are presented as evidence of the weakness of Abiy Ahmed’s military.
  Therefore, based on these reasons and others considered even more serious, it is argued that Dr. Abiy Ahmed will flee the country by the end of the third week of the war and that the alliance forces will subsequently take control.